Interessante. Romania: I gerarchi EU la odiano per motivi di sordida bottega.
Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2018-11-24.
«Romania: GDP increases 7.3%
Gross Domestic Product of Romania grew 7.3% in 2017 compared to last year. This rate is 25 -tenths of one percent higher than the figure of 4.8% published in 2016.
The GDP figure in 2017 was $210,000 million, Romania is number 50 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that we publish. The absolute value of GDP in Romania rose $22,193 million with respect to 2016.
The GDP per capita of Romania in 2017 was $10,756, $1,252 higher than in 2016, it was $9,504. To view the evolution of the GDP per capita, it is interesting to look back a few years and compare these data with those of 2007 when the GDP per capita in Romania was $8,326.
If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, Romania is in 64th position of the 196 countries whose GDP we publish.» [Country Economy]
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Un giudizio sommario sui governi che si sono succeduti in Romania potrebbe essere lo constatare che il pil era 42.815 mld Usd nel 1998 passati ai 210 mld Usd nel 2017: è quintuplicato in venti anni. Il pil procapite è passato nello stesso periodo da 1,897 Usd a 10,765 Usd: si può opinare come 10,000 dollari all’anno non siano una cifra entusiasmante, ma se si tiene conto che la partenza era poco meno di 2,000 Usd la differenza in tenore di vita è stridente.
Se poi si considera il pil procapite per potere di acquisto, si ha la sorpresa di trovarlo a 26,499 Usd. In altri termini, una cifra che consente una vita del tutto dignitosa, sempre migliorabile, ovviamente, ma che pone i rumeni ben fuori dalla fascia della povertà
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Il massimo comun denominatore dei governi rumeni potrebbe essere trovato nel fatto che prima di esprimere una qualche teoria politica oppure economica erano ardenti patrioti: non lo sbandieravano, ma si comportavano da tali.
Difficile la convivenza con i gerarchi dell’Unione Europea. Questi ultimi si erano illusi di poterli manipolare facendo forza sulla leva economica, ma cinquanta anni di comunismo avevano ben forgiato il carattere dei rumeni.
Adesso i motivi di contesa si sono ingigantiti, ma uno è davvero ben grande.
Sulle coste rumene, e nelle acque di competenza economica, si trovano grandi giacimenti di gas naturale, che la Romania decise di sfruttare appieno.
«Romania is said to be sitting on Europe’s second-largest shale gas reserves. It’s turned to controversial hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” in a big way to unlock that gas and guarantee energy independence. But local residents are worried about damage to the environment.»
Tutte fandonie. I residenti se ne facevano un baffo, pur di avere energia a basso costo: corrente elettrica e riscaldamento di inverno. I pruriti ambientalisti erano alimentati dalla EU ed da uno schieramento di ngo, tutti tesi ad impedire alla Romania di arrivare all’autosufficienza.
«Greenpeace activists have staged a protest outside a controversial shale gas exploration site in Romania. They insisted the use of fracking technologies could harm the environment there. …. They urged the leftist government in Romania to ban fracking altogether. …. According to the US Energy Information Administration, Romania potentially holds enough shale gas to cover domestic demand for a century.»
Avrebbe mai potuto essere assente la immarcescibile Greenpeace? Ovunque siano in ballo gli interessi dei loro padroni inscenano drammatici teatrini a favore dell’ecologia,indicando come sarebbe bucolicamente splendido se i rumeni fossero tornati all’età della pietra. I rumeni, si intende, mica gli attivisti di Greenpeace.Gli attivisti di Greenpeace perseguitano solo gli onesti.
«Gas deposits off Romania’s coast worth billions of dollars have drawn the country into an economic row with Hungary. The EU is aiming to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, and Budapest wants to play a key role. …. Over the last few years, massive natural gas deposits have been discovered off Romania’s Black Sea coast. Conservative estimates suggest they hold at least 40 billion cubic meters (142 billion cubic feet) of gas; others say they could hold as much as 200 billion cubic meters — enough to cover Romania’s energy needs for decades and even turn the country into an energy exporter. …. As is so often the case with major international energy sector projects, BRUA has had its share of controversies. At present, Romania and Hungary are embroiled in a legal dispute over Romania’s offshore gas rights and the volume of projected deliveries to Hungary via the BRUA pipeline.
In late June, Kristof Terhes, head of Hungarian gas system operator FGSZ, demanded Romanian politicians pass legislation necessary to deliver the 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas that Hungary seeks annually. Soon thereafter, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto went a step further, claiming Romania was endangering the energy independence of the entire region with its foot dragging. Romania reacted with consternation and a number of politicians and experts retorted that Hungary was not living up to its responsibilities regarding construction of the BRUA pipeline.»
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«The exchange reflects the complex web of conflicting interests tied to the situation. On one side stands Austria and the rest of Western Europe, all of whom seek to curb dependence on Russian gas imports. Western energy companies such as Exxon and Austria’s OMV, who are conducting the Black Sea gas exploration, are also part of that alliance.
On the other side, Hungary is aiming to improve, if not take a leading role in, the Central and Eastern European energy sector. And that is why Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government decided to halt construction on the section of the BRUA pipeline leading to Austria’s Baumgarten gas distribution hub in July of last year. The Hungarians justified the stoppage with the claim that the existing Slovakian connector was entirely sufficient for transport.»
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«As a new offshore oil and gas exploration law comes into force in Romania, the EU nation’s promise of becoming a key gas producer in Europe could be threatened. Not that Bucharest seems bothered.
Romania’s untapped oil and gas potential of up to 200 billion cubic meters, or bcm, in the Black Sea has attracted the interest of the world’s oil and gas majors, including US giant ExxonMobil and Austria’s OMV Petrom.
Romania already covers almost all its gas use from its domestic onshore production and could double that over the next two decades when — or perhaps now if — offshore sources are added to supply.
The Eastern European country produces 10.5 bcm of gas a year, mostly onshore, and consumes 11-12 bcm, making it largely independent of Russian gas, something others in the region can only envy. Other EU members are in fact scrambling to define coherent energy strategies that don’t make them too reliant on Russian imports, hence the spike in interest in Romania, as well as US and Norwegian gas.
Hungary was the first to sign up for Romania’s Black Sea gas after Budapest agreed with US firm ExxonMobil for deliveries starting in 2022, covering half of Hungary’s yearly gas consumption of 10 bcm.
Bur Romanian state-owned gas transporter Transgaz must first finish phase two of the BRUA gas pipeline that would enable gas transports from Romania to Hungary to reach 4.4 bcm a year.
A legal burden
And now a new law could put a dampener on Romania’s plans. The final form of the law freezes taxes for the period of offshore gas production, but retains a limit of 30 percent of investment allowed to be deduced when paying taxes, a change investors and experts alike have attacked.
They say Bucharest’s fiscal regime is now one of the least attractive in the Black Sea for gas. The law also includes a 50 percent domestic supply obligation for gas and a requirement for 25 percent of workers to be Romanian citizens, which some suggested may also contravene EU laws governing open labor market practices.
“For this, we need interconnections, market liberalization and a stable legal framework,” Francois-Regis Mouton, director of EU affairs at the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), told local Agerpress.
The government hopes the new legislation will bring in up to $20 billion (€17.5 billion) over the next 20 years, while a Deloitte study says that investments in Black Sea gas will generate extra budget revenues of $26 billion and add $40 billion to Romania’s GDP by 2040.
Opposition mounting
“Tax stability is completely removed, which makes it impossible to make final investment decisions,” offshore concessionaires association ARCOMN said in a statement.
And this could affect exploration of the Black Sea Neptun block, a joint venture between OMV’s Romanian unit OMV Petrom and ExxonMobil.
In 2012, the two companies said they had discovered 42-84 bcm of gas reserves at the ExxonMobil-operated Domino-1 well.
The Domino field and the Midia Gas Development, operated by Carlyle Group-backed Black Sea Oil & Gas, are awaiting financial investment decisions. They are expected to announce whether to start commercial operations by year’s end.
“We cannot make an investment decision at Petrom in this quarter as planned,” OMV CEO Rainer Seele said recently, adding that OMV had to evaluate the conditions for what the company describes as a “billion-euro investment.”
The Romanian Black Sea Titleholders Association (RBSTA), a group representing investors in offshore projects in the Black Sea, said industry players would need to evaluate the impact of the law on a contract-by-contract basis.
Investors in the Black Sea, including ExxonMobil, OMV Petrom, Lukoil and Carlyle, have invested over $2 billion in exploring Black Sea perimeters in the last 10 years.»
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Ricapitoliamo.
Al momento attuale la Romania consuma 11 – 12 bcm, billion cubic meter, di gas naturale, producendone10.5 bcm: è praticamente autosufficiente.
Detto con parole che non si dovremmo dire, non è più ricattabile energeticamente.
Può abbastanza facilmente diventare però anche un produttore che esporta.
«Hungary was the first to sign up for Romania’s Black Sea gas after Budapest agreed with US firm ExxonMobil for deliveries starting in 2022, covering half of Hungary’s yearly gas consumption of 10 bcm.»
Così, Romania ed Ungheria non dipenderebbero più dal gas russo, specie da quello che fluisce dal Nord Stream attraverso la Germania, che potrebbe sempre chiudere i rubinetti.
«But Romanian state-owned gas transporter Transgaz must first finish phase two of the BRUA gas pipeline that would enable gas transports from Romania to Hungary to reach 4.4 bcm a year»
Poi, taluni si potrebbero chiedere se far proseguire o meno il Brua fino all’Austria.
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Ma adesso i rumeni hanno messo la ciliegina sulla torta: hanno varato una nuova legge sul settore.
Questa è una delle reazioni dei gerarchi di Bruxelles:
«The final form of the law freezes taxes for the period of offshore gas production, but retains a limit of 30 percent of investment allowed to be deduced when paying taxes, a change investors and experts alike have attacked.
They say Bucharest’s fiscal regime is now one of the least attractive in the Black Sea for gas. The law also includes a 50 percent domestic supply obligation for gas and a requirement for 25 percent of workers to be Romanian citizens, which some suggested may also contravene EU laws governing open labor market practices.»
Ma siamo pazzi da legare?
I Rumeni vorrebbero rendere deducibile solo il 30% degli investimenti, vorrebbero trattenersi la metà del gas estratto, e come se non bastasse imporrebbero anche che il 25% della manodopera fosse rumena!
Insomma, questi rumeni proprio non sono solidali con i gerarchi, anzi, quando vanno a parlare all’europarlamento fatto lo il gesto del dito.
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