Cina – Filippine. Mr Xi in visita ufficiale a Manila.

Come si leggerà, la Cina va avanti e se ne frega: chi ha un programma può!

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-23.

La storia insegna come si possano ottenere risultati migliori sfruttando gli errori dell’avversario rispetto all’affrontarlo di petto: procedura meno costosa e ben più efficiente. Richiede solo pazienza e vigile attesa.

Così, mentre negli Stati Uniti si assiste non tanto ad una competizione per poter governare il paese quanto piuttosto ad una guerra civile volta all’eliminazione dell’avversario politico vissuto come un nemico, mentre l’Unione Europea si sta lentamente ma inesorabilmente disintegrando e l’asse franco germanico evidenzia quanto sia inconsistente causa la debolezza interna di Mr Macron e l’uscita di scena di Frau Merkel, la Cina di Mr Xi sta procedendo nei suoi piani di piccoli passi per il controllo del mondo.

Se è vero che le Filippine siano un paese ancora in fase di emersione economica, se è vero che presenta molte contraddizioni, sarebbe altrettanto vero prendere atto della sua posizione strategica nel chiudere il Mare Cinese del Sud agli accessi oceanici.

Per la Cina due sono gli obiettivi strategici.

– Assicurarsi il pieno controllo politico, commerciale e militare del Mare Cinese del Sud;

– Assicurarsi corridoi navigabili altamente sicuri tra questo mare e l’Oceano Pacifico.

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La vera posta in gioco è la concreta possibilità di trasformare la Cina da potenza locoregionale a superpotenza mondiale. Non è certo un piano da attuarsi a breve termine, magari con azioni di forza: i risultati sono attesi tra anni, ma dovranno essere stabili, duraturi nel tempo.

L’Occidente ha trattato duramente le Filippine, e questa per reazione hanno iniziato a guardarsi attorno.

«Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in the Philippines for a state visit on Tuesday, aiming to advance strategic gains made under a Manila leadership that has favored Beijing in the hope of receiving billions of dollars of loans and investment»

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«Xi’s visit comes two years after Philippine counterpart Rodrigo Duterte declared he was reorienting his foreign policy away from the United States and toward China, despite decades of mistrust and bitter maritime disputes with Beijing.»

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«Xi praised Duterte and described ties as being “a rainbow after the rain” and repeatedly called for the “proper handling” of rows over the South China Sea.»

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«But Duterte’s style of handling has frustrated nationalists, who say he has been submissive in refusing to criticize China’s military buildup, or seek its compliance with a 2016 arbitration award that invalidated its claim to almost the entire waterway»

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«Public opinion is largely supportive of Duterte’s presidency but surveys consistently show reservations about his China policy and disdain for the United States.»

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Occorrerebbe fare molta attenzione a non valutare gli eventi sulla scorta di quanto scrivono i media liberal, i quali odiano Mr Duterte per averli cortesemente messi all’uscio e per aver iniziato una ampia bonifica del commercio e spaccio di droghe nel suo paese.

Non sempre le mogli separate parlano ben dell’ex partner.

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→ Reuters. 2018-11-20. China’s Xi visits Philippines as Duterte pressed to take tougher line

MANILA (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in the Philippines for a state visit on Tuesday, aiming to advance strategic gains made under a Manila leadership that has favored Beijing in the hope of receiving billions of dollars of loans and investment.

Xi’s visit comes two years after Philippine counterpart Rodrigo Duterte declared he was reorienting his foreign policy away from the United States and toward China, despite decades of mistrust and bitter maritime disputes with Beijing.

In a commentary in Monday’s Philippine Star newspaper, Xi praised Duterte and described ties as being “a rainbow after the rain” and repeatedly called for the “proper handling” of rows over the South China Sea.

But Duterte’s style of handling has frustrated nationalists, who say he has been submissive in refusing to criticize China’s military buildup, or seek its compliance with a 2016 arbitration award that invalidated its claim to almost the entire waterway.

Public opinion is largely supportive of Duterte’s presidency but surveys consistently show reservations about his China policy and disdain for the United States.

A Social Weather Stations survey released late on Monday showed 84 percent of Filipinos felt it was wrong not to oppose China’s militarization of its manmade islands, and 86 percent believed it was right to strengthen the Philippine military, especially the navy.

The poll of 1,200 people conducted in late September also showed trust in the United States remained “very good”, but China was considered “poor”.

A small protest was held outside China’s embassy in Manila on Tuesday.

Asked on Tuesday about the survey, presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo, said Duterte’s strategy was to avoid a potential “inferno” of conflict while reaping the rewards of improved business.

“They are not aware of the real geopolitics in the region. The president is a very cautious diplomat,” Panelo told news channel ANC.

“Rather than provoke, he’d rather talk with them and get some trade relations that will benefit this country.”

Panelo accepted that those benefits, including $24 billion of pledged loans and investments, were yet to materialize, but said Duterte was not scared to speak up.

“This is the best time for the president to exert pressure on the Chinese president,” he said. “Knowing the man, he’ll do that, he’s that kind of person.”

Duterte has heaped praise on Xi for his support for his infrastructure program, although just three of dozens of such planned projects have broken ground.

Some analysts say Duterte risks appearing as if he has been duped into making concessions.

Other Philippine experts say delays in securing Chinese credit could be a blessing given the potential debt burden, echoing a warning delivered by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.